Friday, April 27, 2007

The NFL Draft is roughly 24 hours away... depending on when you're reading this.

We're closing in... the hullabaloo, mock drafts and speculation will all be put to rest at noon tomorrow when the teams of the NFL take to the stage to make decisions that shape the future of their organization. Nothing is ever certain on draft day, that's actually the only thing that you can really count on. However, here are a few pseudo-certainties that seem to apply to every draft class:

Someone that seems fool-proof right now will turn into a total bust.

Someone that you've never heard of will turn into a marquee player.

Your favorite team will make a decision that boggles the mind.

The Jets, Texans, Browns and Lions will either make ridiculously bad choices or have the good ones be forever plagued with injury (or the aforementioned "total bust").

The Patriots will use a combination of voodoo and virgin sacrifice to once again secure the best draft-class in the league.

Al Davis will wear a track suit.

With all of this in mind, I've chosen not to make predictions on the draft order this year. Last year's attempt, while correct in 9/10 top picks, was ridiculously out of order... only guessing correctly that Vince Young would head to The Titans.

This year I want to speculate on possible strategies, reasonable ideas and players that are currently flying under the radar. Mock Drafts are available everywhere, there's really very little that I could add to that type of thing. Especially when you consider that it'll be completely wrong and make me look like a jackass come Sunday.

First off, the sure-fire picks of the 2007 NFL Draft (at least some of which will fade into obscurity within 2-3 years). Obviously, you have Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson. Not only is he arguably the best player in the draft, but one of the most exciting and explosive offensive players to come along in years.

From there you have your lesser superstars... Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson and Jamarcus Russell. Of the above fantastic four, expect Johnson and Peterson to live up to their promise, and the Russell/Quinn QB fiasco to take root in whatever town chooses to spend entirely too much money on a golden-boy Quarterback.


Of course, this is nothing that hasn't been covered an nauseum by every sports writer, blogger and armchair NFL owner in America. The more interesting aspects of this years draft lie not in the players themselves, but rather the potential front office decisions leading to their signing. Of these owners, perhaps none is in a more interesting, if not enviable, position than Al Davis. With the 1st overall pick in the 2007 draft, Davis is in a position to address some of the numerous concerns that are plaguing the Raiders organization, or bargain for the pick.

The Raiders suffered through an abysmal 2006 season, plagued by an offense that lacked the firepower to overwhelm... well, anyone. At times it even seemed that the Kentucky Wildcats would have been capable of blanking the Raiders on any given Sunday. When your back is to the wall, what do you do? Do you draft a young quarterback in hopes that he will evolve into a team leader and the face of a franchise? Do you take the sure-fire receiver even when there's no one to actually get the ball to him? Do you work on an offensive line that, as of last season, was as effective as an open gate at the Kentucky Derby?

In my opinion, you do none of the above... or all of the above.

Oakland Draft Scenario #1:

For starters, approach the podium to announce that you have chosen, with the first overall pick, Calvin Johnson. From there, let it be known that you have secretly engineered a trade with the Tennessee Titans, sending Randy Moss to Nashville in trade for Tennessee's 1st round pick and some O-line help. The Titans need a big-target receiver, Randy wants to go and with PacMan Jones out of action, the court docket just isn't nearly exciting enough in music city.

With Tennessee's (now Oakland's) 19th pick in the draft, select Miami's Greg Olsen. Now, you've satisfied your need for some short and long range aeronautic firepower... but who's going to call the plays? With the 33rd pick in the draft, you select either Trent Edwards (Stanford) or Drew Stanton (Michigan State). Both are potential star quarterbacks, both with certain advantages and disadvantages. Judging by Lane Kiffin's particular breed of offense, Edwards may be a better fit, but Stanton seems to me like a better choice.

Finally, with the 65th pick in the draft, grow a pair and select Michael Bush from Louisville. A potential Heisman candidate and sure-fire 1st round selection before being sidelined with an injury early last season, Michael Bush is still Michael Bush. His stock has, of course, dropped substantially due to uncertainties with his health. However, using a 3rd round pick on the guy isn't exactly gambling away the house on a craps game... it's more like betting a week's pay on a good poker hand. It's important to point out that this will be the last opportunity to draft Bush, as you can be fairly certain that if Atlanta holds on to the 75th pick, Bobby Petrino will initiate a Cardinals reunion.

From that point forth, you make typically bad, Oaklandesque decisions.


Oakland Draft Scenario #2:

Trade the first pick to Tampa Bay. The Bucs want Calvin Johnson... they really, really want Calvin Johnson. The trick here is essentially naming your price. If you can convince Tampa that you fully intend on drafting and holding on to #21, then the price goes up and up and up. Although it would be unlikely, it wouldn't hurt to ask for the 4th 35th and 64th picks in exchange for the #1. Should you receive those picks, you're wiped out of any chance to pick up Greg Olsen, but you can still look for Jamarcus Russell at the 4th spot (after Detroit trades down and Cleveland takes either Brady Quinn or Adrian Peterson). After that, you now have the 33rd, 35th, 64th and 65th picks with which to play around. Having your QB needs met early, you can focus on looking for more help on the offensive line, backfield and receiving corps. Dwayne Jarret could still be around, along with Sidney Rice, a whole host of adequate tight ends and our ol' buddy, Michael Bush.


Of course, the draft doesn't live and die with Oakland. Detroit is looking to move some things around, Arizona is likely to stop at nothing (providing that Matlock isn't on) to acquire Joe Thomas and Cincinnati will be actively attempting to exclusively draft players from BYU, TCU and the often-overlooked Vatican City University. So, what of those players that might be flying under the radar? The guys that could potentially blow an organization wide open, but aren't interesting enough to warrant all the draft-day hype?

Well, as usual there are more than a few, and as usual I (along with everyone else in America) am still overlooking them. However, there are a few sure-shot "could be..." kinda guys that aren't getting the attention that they deserve.

1. Robert Meachem. It's somewhat ridiculous to count Meachem as an "under the radar" kind of guy, as he should be a guaranteed 1st round pick, but with Calvin Johnson Mania sweeping the nation, he's becoming a bit of an afterthought. For starters, he's fast. Robert Meachem blows by you faster than Jasmine St. Claire "on the set" in 1996. Add to that a fierce vertical leap and a 1,000 + yd, 11 TD season at Tennessee last year and you're looking at a serious offensive weapon.

2. Michael Bush. I've mentioned him twice already, so clearly I'm in his corner. As a policy, I try not to get behind anyone from the University of Louisville. It's one that I'm proud of, and one that I usually stick to. However, I do feel bad for Bush and his situation. And, emotions aside, I genuinely do feel that he'll be a valuable asset to any organization that actually takes the chance... do you hear that, Philadelphia? Bush has been cleared to play by his medical team, claims to feel 100%, and as a 3rd rounder is probably the best bargain in the draft. He may fall on his face in the NFL, but when you're afraid to gamble on a 3rd round pick, you may need to reconsider your line of work.

3. Jared Zabranksy. He's poised, confident and a proven leader. His accuracy and fearlessness aren't in question, and his speed spoke for itself at the scouting combine, as he either outright won or tied for first place in the quickness drills. Add to that a Wonderlic score of 36 (the best of all incoming quarterbacks) and a Fiesta Bowl MVP trophy and this guy has "breakout star" written all over him. To those that would suggest that Zabransky wasn't tested in the relatively weak WAC, keep in mind that it's that same "they didn't play anybody" mentality that stunned Sooners just a few months ago.

When it's all said and done, my brilliant plans and clever schemes will undoubtedly come crashing down around me. It's entirely possible that Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn will be the next Donovan McNabb and Carson Palmer. It's entirely possible that Michael Bush may never start a game and Jared Zabransky may find himself taking snaps in the CFL. But really, that's the wonderful part about the NFL Draft. The relative certainty in the face of an absolute guarantee that you are completely wrong.

Just like last year, the year before and every year to follow, we have no idea what's going to happen. We don't know who's going where, how they'll perform or, in some cases, if they'll even be drafted at all. No matter how much we like to think that we do, we honestly don't know a damn thing... except for one... Al Davis WILL wear a tracksuit.

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